J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and ForecastsReturn

In January 2014, the Czech Statistical Office published its demographic prospect for the regions of the Czech Republic. It follows the medium option of the prospect for the whole Czech Republic published in 2013. Unlike previous prospects, the current prospect has been computed including migration. Its influence not only on the population size but mainly on its sex and age structure is (especially in some regions) very considerable. The population development in the Central Bohemian Region and, in particular, in Prague is expected to be quite different from that in the other regions. While in Prague and Central Bohemia the population size will be increasing due to expected permanent immigration, the other regions will mostly face stagnation or even population decline. Population ageing will continue in all the regions but it will be slower in Prague and Central Bohemia than in the remaining regions.

The development of the standard of living of pensioners is an important issue that is very rarely analysed. The paper focuses on the development of households' consumption for both economically active and economically inactive households. Besides the impacts on individuals' consumption, it is the most important expenditure component of gross domestic product. The change in households' consumption is also caused by population aging. It means that the proportion of people in the retirement age and pensioners' households increases. Actually, this causes that the number of people needed to provide for retired people is decreasing. The paper deals with the analysis of future living conditions of pensioners, i.e., people, who are still part of the productive population nowadays. This text also deals with present and future consumption by different types of households based on a projection of the population in the retirement age. Finally, estimates of the structure of their consumer spending and comparison with the current spending are presented.

The author thinks about the economies and the food problem of the Horn of Africa countries. The drought and famine conditions in the Horn of Africa, coupled with the conflict in Somalia, have affected over 12 million people. There is a very low nutrition level in the long term in all the countries (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia). A high level of basic demographic indicators and an unfinished demographic transition will mean a further significant population increase. The countries have different backgrounds for future economic development. Ethiopia is the region's strongest country economically with a presumption of gradual increase in its industrial production. The economy of Djibouti is highly dependent on a local seaport situated in a strategic position. Eritrea has lagged behind recently and it will be important for its future development to overcome discrepancies with Ethiopia, which could use its ports. The most complicated situation is in Somalia, which has been divided among local clans for two decades and the population is terrorized by armed groups. The information introduced in this paper results from the implementation of institutional research project MSM 6046070906 "Economics of resources of Czech agriculture and their efficient use in multifunctional agri-food systems".

This paper deals with the situation on the Czech labour market in the period 1990-2006. It shows the status and development of the supply and demand sides of this market. Great attention is paid to the long-term trends in employment, self-employment, unemployment, and long-term unemployment. The principal findings concern the dominance of the supply side of the labour market, especially the unfavourable decline in young labour force in the present difficult period, a special pattern of Czech self-employment development, a heavy tax burden on employees' income, and distortions of labour market caused by high labour costs (social and health insurance). Last but not least, the paper explores the labour market flexibility.