G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment DecisionsReturn

We argue that individuals systematically interpret sequences of events in a causal manner. The aim of this article is to show that people do so even if they are aware of the stochastic nature of the respective sequence. The bias can explain some anomalous behaviour of investors in financial markets. Small as well as professional investors may illusorily perceive causality of former random success and future yield. Laboratory experiments testing the interpretation of stochastically occurring events in financial designs as well as analyses of real trading data from financial markets confirm that investors indeed interpret (quasi)random events casually; they make incorrect predictions and they egocentrically allocate responsibility for their success. The causality illusion induces overconfidence, inefficient investment and risk seeking. In the conclusion, we discuss factors that may limit effects of the causality illusion and suggest future areas for research.

Indonesian migrant workers (IMW) face life difficulties after returning back to Indonesia. This is a contrary condition considering their contribution to their home family in Indonesia while working abroad. Literature mentions that their financial planning is the root of the poverty of ex-IMW. Therefore, this research adopts literacy theory to explain this phenomenon. This research conducted a survey among 548 ex-IMW and measures their financial literacy and financial planning. This research also maps their asset ownership to examine the relationship between financial literacy and asset ownership. Overall, this research documents that financial literacy contributes statistically significantly and positively to financial planning. Furthermore, this research shows that asset ownership is closely related to financial literacy. In a nutshell, this research concludes that it is important for migrant workers to have good knowledge of financial issues, because having good financial literacy helps the migrant workers to plan their finance and budget much better, thereby helping them to avoid the poverty trap. Therefore, policymakers such as migrant worker authorities and/or Indonesian embassies abroad have to institute financial education programmes for migrant workers before they return to Indonesia.

Financial fragility and instability of banking sectors has received increased academic attention due to recent financial crises around the world. The objective of the article is to extend and adapt a previously created financial fragility model of the Czech financial sector in order to reflect its specific conditions. It introduces the concept of minimum required reserves and uses consistent sources of data collected from annual reports of Czech banks in 2013. Besides the prediction of default of households, the model also allows a prediction of key macroeconomic variables such as the inflation and unemployment rates. However, some of the issues of this class of models - in particular, the impossibility to measure some of its exogenous parameters - remain unresolved and present a challenge for the future development of the model.

The article deals with the art market and key dimensions of investment in art and distinguishes the peculiarities of selection of artworks for investment purposes, covering the main features of the art market. Methodologies of composition of art price indices are analysed. An art market trend analysis is conducted based on statistical data and variations of the Artmarket Global index for the last decade. Using the ARIMA forecasting method, the forecast of artwork price changes in 2014-2015 is conducted. The forecast is presented for the aggregate Artmarket Global index and for different art movements (old masters, impressionism and post-impressionism, modern art, contemporary art) to figure out which of them are the best for investments in the near future. The paper further investigates a new Artistic Power Value (APV) ratio and its adequacy for analysis which makes it easy to assess the suitability of investment in artworks and to compare works of art from various sections. Finally, investment decision-making characteristics of the art market are distinguished.

Two levels can be identified in the article. The first one is related to a theoretical introduction to the known stochastic dominance approach and the interactive multi-objective programming method; in the second we apply the aforesaid quantitative approaches to making an "optimal" portfolio structure of shares funds. We use the draft of stochastic dominance for a reduction in a relatively huge set of investment opportunities. The application of the stochastic dominance principle is determined by the stochastic character of the studied problem. The yield rate of shares funds is stated as a random variable. We also apply the Monte Carlo method in the investment decision-making procedure. For finding an "optimal" portfolio form, we use the interactive multi-criteria programming method, the computational algorithm of which is based on maximization of positive deviation from aspiration levels of separate objective functions (criteria). After all the procedures, including successive revision of solutions offered by analysts according to decision-maker preferences, we obtain a final portfolio form of shares funds.

Energy, or renewable energy sources, is currently a frequently discussed topic. This paper focuses mainly on the economics of photovoltaic energy, specifically valuation of this technology. First, photovoltaic power systems are described, followed by a description of the method of analysis of photovoltaic project efficiency used in the case study. The main part is devoted to a specific case study of a power plant photovoltaic project valuation (using the Net Present Value). The authors have tried to answer the questions of guaranteed redemption prices as well as the "green bonus". A sensitivity analysis of the NPV to changes in some input parameters is calculated in the discussion. The principal final findings and legislative changes concerning photovoltaics in the Czech Republic (valid from 2011) are mentioned in the conclusion. These changes should restrict the increase in the prices of electric energy for the final consumer and, of course, ensure revenues for the state budget.