G02 - Behavioral Finance: Underlying PrinciplesReturn

We argue that individuals systematically interpret sequences of events in a causal manner. The aim of this article is to show that people do so even if they are aware of the stochastic nature of the respective sequence. The bias can explain some anomalous behaviour of investors in financial markets. Small as well as professional investors may illusorily perceive causality of former random success and future yield. Laboratory experiments testing the interpretation of stochastically occurring events in financial designs as well as analyses of real trading data from financial markets confirm that investors indeed interpret (quasi)random events casually; they make incorrect predictions and they egocentrically allocate responsibility for their success. The causality illusion induces overconfidence, inefficient investment and risk seeking. In the conclusion, we discuss factors that may limit effects of the causality illusion and suggest future areas for research.

In the globalised world of the past decade, the characteristic movement of the real economy in Europe has been in the lower amplitudes of the economic cycle and has been complicated by the low effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy tools and instability on the financial markets, which, in relation to the real economy, display features of autonomy and virtuality. The exchange rates of the euro, rouble and Czech crown display exceptional volatility, while the yields from financial instruments are at a historic minimum. These phenomena are the result of the stagnation of the European economy, a high level of indebtedness and an inability to effectively solve escalating political problems, such as military conflicts, terrorism, mass migration, economic sanctions, etc.