F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic IntegrationReturn

The European integration process has had severe impacts on the development of exchange rates of member states' currencies. For small and open economies which trade large part of both their production input and output in foreign currencies the real exchange rates are of a special importance. This paper looks at the drivers behind the evolution of the real exchange rate of CZK within the European integration process. Beside the decomposition of the general long term trend, several factors of exchange rate fluctuations are depicted. Furthermore the recent halt in long term trend in real CZK appreciation towards EUR is discussed. Finally the study shows statistical simulation of future nominal EUR/CZK development with help of AR(I)MA models employed on different data series. Models' findings picture the gaps between observed and predicted values in the period following the exchange intervention of the Czech National Bank (CNB) from November 2013.

Modifying IS-MP-IA model by using EU economic characteristics allows for better interpretation of the results. Specifically, from the point of view of the IS and MP curves we obtain useful information about the influence of EU economy on the Czech economy (i.e. on its GDP). We may conclude that the GARCH methodology seems to be a suitable tool for estimation of modified IS-MP-IA model and for subsequent anticipation expected development of basic macroeconomic variables, relevant for the Czech economy after its accession to EU.