F31 - Foreign ExchangeReturn

The paper investigates developments of exchange rate time series of Central European currencies and tries to find evidence of some stylised facts. Statistical methods and an econometric approach to the univariate time series modelling of high-frequency data, i.e., daily, are used. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) All the CE nominal exchange time series are not stationary: nevertheless, stationarity of all the return time series was confirmed. (2) Volatility clustering was proven and the GARCH modelling approach was successfully applied, including asymmetric modelling of volatility. (3) The more flexible an exchange rate regime is, the more volatile the respective currency. This is true for both nominal and real exchange rates. While nominal volatility is lower than real volatility in a system of fixed or less flexible exchange rates, the opposite is true for flexible systems: exchange rate volatility is higher in nominal terms than in real terms.

The paper introduces the author's original model which describes the main behavioural traits of the foreign exchange hedger who is trying to minimise her FX market risk exposure and secure foreign currency liquidity, in order to be able to settle her liabilities in a timely manner. This behaviour is then analysed in the context of several exogenous shocks to prices and exchange rates and implications of how order flow and exchange rates react to this behaviour are drawn based on the theoretical framework. In Chapter 2, the conclusions on expected patterns in exchange rate evolution reached in the theoretical part are tested using the fuzzy clustering technique. The hypotheses reached in the theoretical section were partially supported by the empirical analysis: some of the expected patterns were revealed by the data during shock periods of prices of Brent Oil, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Standard and Poor's 500 and four currency pairs (EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURCZK).

The European integration process has had severe impacts on the development of exchange rates of member states' currencies. For small and open economies which trade large part of both their production input and output in foreign currencies the real exchange rates are of a special importance. This paper looks at the drivers behind the evolution of the real exchange rate of CZK within the European integration process. Beside the decomposition of the general long term trend, several factors of exchange rate fluctuations are depicted. Furthermore the recent halt in long term trend in real CZK appreciation towards EUR is discussed. Finally the study shows statistical simulation of future nominal EUR/CZK development with help of AR(I)MA models employed on different data series. Models' findings picture the gaps between observed and predicted values in the period following the exchange intervention of the Czech National Bank (CNB) from November 2013.

The article deals with the aspiration of the Chinese currency to become the world currency status. The world currency must perform as a store of value, means of exchange, and an accounting unit internationally for governments as well as the private sector. The important conditions of this position are an important share in the world's GDP and the global trade, stability of the domestic economy, and financial markets of high quality and depth. The last one is the most problematic of the given assumptions. Because of it, China has started a reform of its financial sector, and this reform has been accelerated since 2012. The convertibility of the Chinese currency is planned in several stages: gradually from its use in international trade, to international investments, and finally in international reserves. So far, payments for trade transactions have been fully liberalised. As for financial transactions, obstacles are gradually reduced. The internationalisation of the Chinese currency is taking place in the wider context of the world economy, which the text also discusses.

The paper presents both theoretical and an empirical analysis of factors influencing the prices of non-tradable goods and services in the Czech economy. The analysis discusses the development of the real exchange rate of the Czech koruna and quantifies the size of the real exchange rate appreciation of the Czech currency in the period 1993-2007 as a result of the domestic price development in the tradable and non-tradable sectors. The paper mathematically derives a relationship between the prices of non-tradable goods and services and the real exchange rate based on a traditional aggregate base. It also defines the basic determinants of the prices of non-tradable goods and services while emphasizing the basic distinctions between these price determinants for non-tradable and tradable goods and services. The econometric part of the paper is based on VAR models, cointegration analysis, and vector error correction models. The empirical verification is carried out with the Czech economic data covering the period 1996-2007.

In this paper we bring the survey of the contemporaneous research on the behaviour of exchange rate and so called exchange rate disconnect puzzle. We have introduced several directions in which research on this object could be developed. They are basically concerned with the monopolistically competition, which allows for exchange rate fluctuations from its long run equilibrium level, so that purchasing power parity condition doesn't holds. The alternative approach incorporates heterogeneous agents' setup.

In this essay I've demonstrated that there is evidence of unstable and non-linear relationship between fundamental variables and exchange rates. I have tried to "tune" Frankel's (1979) real interest differential model of exchange rate fluctuation. I have distinguished between Czech crown/Euro market and Euro/U.S. Dollar market because there is a different behaviour of market participants (FX dealers). Questionnaire surveys indicate that the interest rates play a ominant role in professionals' decision-making process on the UR/USD market. In that aspect I have extended Frankel's (1979) original RID model by allowing the constant and the coefficients for the short and long term interest rates to switch, depending on the value of the state variable. It has improved the fit of Frankel's model. On the CZK/EUR market, questionnaire surveys indicated that trade balance plays a dominant role in FX dealer's decision-making process. I suggested extending the model with trade balance variable as an approximation for income. Unfortunately there are no good time-series available for to strongly authenticate this idea in a way of non-linearity. But generally speaking, it seems that non-linear modelling of exchange rates is able to improve our understanding of exchange rate determination.