E52 - Monetary PolicyReturn

This paper is a theoretical one and deals with the real interest rate channel of monetary policy and sensitivity of investment to real interest rate. In the first part, the mechanism of the real interest rate channel is analysed. The second part focuses on the neoclassical model of demand for capital, Fisher's theory of investment, Tobin's q and Keynes's investment theory. All these theories are discussed in the context of real interest rate, i.e., whether they consider that investment reacts inversely to changes of real interest rate. The third part of the paper targets application of theories to the framework of the real interest rate channel. The paper concludes that all the mentioned theories of investment imply that investment reacts inversely and permanently to changes of real interest rate and also that central banks may influence investment via all types of real interest rate, i.e., short and long or market and retail real interest rate.

The paper deals with a transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the regime of inflation targeting. It focuses on the expectations channel, the credit view and the cost channel. These channels work side by side and may amplify effects of the traditional view of transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, which emphasises adjustments on the demand side.

After 2007, financial market turmoil began and shortage of dollar funding liquidity disrupted not only the US dollar funding market but also overseas. To address the shortage of dollar liquidity, the FED introduced swap lines with systematic important central banks, including emerging markets. The paper discusses the main feature of the FED's swap lines in the context of the funding pressures on the FX swap market. The main objective of the paper is to reveal technical aspects and effectiveness of the swap lines. The paper explains connectivity between un/secured money markets and the FX swap market during the financial and debt crises. The FX swap market was hit significantly. During the liquidity crisis of 2007-2010, the main driver of the deviation from covered interest parity was a shortage of dollar liquidity jointly with counterparty risk. During the debt crisis, the main driver was counterparty risk of the euro zone banks and sovereigns. The FED swap lines were used as a liquidity backstop. The paper concludes that the swap lines were an effective tool of cooperation between central banks and significantly alleviated the pressure on the FX swap market. In addition, the swap lines were flexible, supported financial stability, no losses were recorded, the problem of adverse selection was avoided and exit was successful. Finally, the swap lines have become a permanent tool for solving temporary shortages of foreign currency liquidity in national banking systems.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the structure of the current financial system, including money circulation in it, and define its influence on business cycles. The paper examines causes of disturbances in money circulation which lead to shallow or even deep economic crises. The role of central banks is marginal. The author concludes that proper functioning of the current financial system is subject to constant credit growth. If credit growth is insufficient, the system collapses due to money hoarding and other disorders in money circulation. It causes inability to repay the debts, which results in uncertainty and reduces aggregate demand. The entire study is based on US data.

In this paper we bring the survey of the contemporaneous research on the behaviour of exchange rate and so called exchange rate disconnect puzzle. We have introduced several directions in which research on this object could be developed. They are basically concerned with the monopolistically competition, which allows for exchange rate fluctuations from its long run equilibrium level, so that purchasing power parity condition doesn't holds. The alternative approach incorporates heterogeneous agents' setup.