E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsReturn

This paper is a theoretical one and deals with the real interest rate channel of monetary policy and sensitivity of investment to real interest rate. In the first part, the mechanism of the real interest rate channel is analysed. The second part focuses on the neoclassical model of demand for capital, Fisher's theory of investment, Tobin's q and Keynes's investment theory. All these theories are discussed in the context of real interest rate, i.e., whether they consider that investment reacts inversely to changes of real interest rate. The third part of the paper targets application of theories to the framework of the real interest rate channel. The paper concludes that all the mentioned theories of investment imply that investment reacts inversely and permanently to changes of real interest rate and also that central banks may influence investment via all types of real interest rate, i.e., short and long or market and retail real interest rate.

After 2007, financial market turmoil began and shortage of dollar funding liquidity disrupted not only the US dollar funding market but also overseas. To address the shortage of dollar liquidity, the FED introduced swap lines with systematic important central banks, including emerging markets. The paper discusses the main feature of the FED's swap lines in the context of the funding pressures on the FX swap market. The main objective of the paper is to reveal technical aspects and effectiveness of the swap lines. The paper explains connectivity between un/secured money markets and the FX swap market during the financial and debt crises. The FX swap market was hit significantly. During the liquidity crisis of 2007-2010, the main driver of the deviation from covered interest parity was a shortage of dollar liquidity jointly with counterparty risk. During the debt crisis, the main driver was counterparty risk of the euro zone banks and sovereigns. The FED swap lines were used as a liquidity backstop. The paper concludes that the swap lines were an effective tool of cooperation between central banks and significantly alleviated the pressure on the FX swap market. In addition, the swap lines were flexible, supported financial stability, no losses were recorded, the problem of adverse selection was avoided and exit was successful. Finally, the swap lines have become a permanent tool for solving temporary shortages of foreign currency liquidity in national banking systems.