C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data AccessReturn

Statistics has been developing for almost 250 years - since the publication of an essay which included one theorem called Bayes' after the author. This whole period (since 1763 to this day) has been accompanied by a duel between the supporters of a subjective concept of probability and those who refuse everything but a purely objective concept of probability as well as statistics. While the 18th and 19th centuries accepted the importance of the subjective (let us say Bayesian) way of thinking for the development of probability and statistics without a problem, in the 20th century the classic (frequentist) way took over and has been dominant in teaching and textbooks to this day. Only in the second half of the 20th century did the situation begin to change slowly. Reasons for that are partly described in the present article, but arguments and simple examples supporting the Bayesian way in comparison with the classic one are clear and generally respected worldwide. Unsuspected new computing possibilities have caused an explosive development of Bayesian statistics, which has infiltrated almost all the areas of statistics and a number of other scientific fields. It is not possible to expect a retreat of the different philosophical or pedagogical positions of the fighting schools of thought (even though it is really needed), but the use of advantages of both the approaches is methodologically not only possible, but even expected. Part of the teaching of statistics must be prepared for these changes, but it has not been the case in the Czech Republic at all so far.

Statistics has been developing for almost 250 years - since the publication of an essay which included one theorem called Bayes' after the author. This whole period (since 1763 to this day) has been accompanied by a duel between the supporters of a subjective concept of probability and those who refuse everything but a purely objective concept of probability as well as statistics. While the 18th and 19th centuries accepted the importance of the subjective (let us say Bayesian) way of thinking for the development of probability and statistics without a problem, in the 20th century the classic (frequentist) way took over and has been dominant in teaching and textbooks to this day. Only in the second half of the 20th century did the situation begin to change slowly. Reasons for that are partly described in the present article, but arguments and simple examples supporting the Bayesian way in comparison with the classic one are clear and generally respected worldwide. Unsuspected new computing possibilities have caused an explosive development of Bayesian statistics, which has infiltrated almost all the areas of statistics and a number of other scientific fields. It is not possible to expect a retreat of the different philosophical or pedagogical positions of the fighting schools of thought (even though it is really needed), but the use of advantages of both the approaches is methodologically not only possible, but even expected. Part of the teaching of statistics must be prepared for these changes, but it has not been the case in the Czech Republic at all so far.

Statistics has been developing for almost 250 years - since the publication of an essay which included one theorem called Bayes' after the author. This whole period (since 1763 to this day) has been accompanied by a duel between the supporters of a subjective concept of probability and those who refuse everything but a purely objective concept of probability as well as statistics. While the 18th and 19th centuries accepted the importance of the subjective (let us say Bayesian) way of thinking for the development of probability and statistics without a problem, in the 20th century the classic (frequentist) way took over and has been dominant in teaching and textbooks to this day. Only in the second half of the 20th century did the situation begin to change slowly. Reasons for that are partly described in the present article, but arguments and simple examples supporting the Bayesian way in comparison with the classic one are clear and generally respected worldwide. Unsuspected new computing possibilities have caused an explosive development of Bayesian statistics, which has infiltrated almost all the areas of statistics and a number of other scientific fields. It is not possible to expect a retreat of the different philosophical or pedagogical positions of the fighting schools of thought (even though it is really needed), but the use of advantages of both the approaches is methodologically not only possible, but even expected. Part of the teaching of statistics must be prepared for these changes, but it has not been the case in the Czech Republic at all so far.

Each year we are informed in the "World Competitiveness Yearbook" , which is published by the International Institute for Management Development in Lausanne, about the bad and/or deteriorating competitiveness of Centraleuropean transition countries, although their export performance, as well as their market shares, are increasing permanently at an above-average pace. We ascertained, that the contradiction between this evaluation and reality is caused mainly by the fact, that among the huge number of criteria, on which the conclusions of this Institute are based, are missing most of the classical, theoretically founded, criteria of competitiveness. This contradiction is also due to the fact, that conditions established in the economically most developed countries of the world, are regarded by this Institute as the main "etalon" for its evaluations, so that any deviation from these "norms", even those which are caused merely by the fact, that new EU member-states are still transition countries, are interpreted as a proof of their weak competitiveness. This biased vision of the competitiveness of these countries has numerous negative consequences, beginning with the worsening of conditions under which they can achieve access to foreign financial resources, upto the weakening of the confidence of foreign investors in their competitiveness and technological capabilities, (which negatively influences the choice of productions these investors are willing to establish here). Thus it is of utmost importance to make the economic public aware of the good competitiveness of the Czech republic and of other new EU member-states from among Centraleuropean transition countries, which is revealed among others also by convincing data, presented in the above mentioned article.