Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 2011, 19(4):25-38 | DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.338

Application of FIGARCH and EWMA Models on Stock Indices PX and BUX

Zdeněk Štolc

Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Fakulta informatiky a statistiky (xstoz04@vse.cz).

Volatility of the financial time series belongs to the crucial estimated parameters in finance (e.g. in risk management, derivative pricing). It is well known, that volatility varies in time, so that new approaches of volatility modeling have appeared. In this paper two models of the conditional heteroskedasticity - fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) and EWMA are presented. These models are illustrated on the daily historical returns of stock index PX and index BUX. Standard tests of normality, autocorrelation and conditional heteroskedasticity are applied to these log-return time series and before estimating the models, which confirm a usability of the conditional heteroskedasticity models. Empirical results of the Rescale Range analysis (R/S) indicate a long memory in the volatility process of PX index and the first 40 autocorrelations of the square log-returns show their hyperbolic decay. The volatility models are estimated by quasi-maximum likelihood method with Student's t-distribution and used to the calculation of the 1-day 95% and 99% Value at Risk values. Finally, the validity of the models is verified by Kupiec's test, TUFF and Christoffersen's test. These tests demonstrate, that the FIGARCH model is a suitable alternative to the EWMA model in the Value at Risk calculation.

Keywords: PX and BUX indices, fractionally integrated process, FIGARCH, Value at Risk, EWMA

JEL classification: C12, C51, C58

Published: August 1, 2011  Show citation